James Rickards: War With Korea Inevitable A Black Swan Looms
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Jim discusses how most financial concepts are easy to understand. Dollar and gold are an inverse relationship, and gold has dropped due to recent dollar strength. Throughout 2016 and 2017 the dollar has been weakening. The Euro has risen against the dollar, and this weaker dollar has translated into higher prices for gold.
Jim thinks a shooting war with North Korea could be a wake-up call for the markets. The markets did react somewhat to Kim Jung-un’s initial missile tests however these launches have become normalized. Jim is convinced the U.S. is on a path toward war and will have to attack before they miniaturize their nuclear warheads to missile size. Korea has achieved made advances faster than intelligence agencies suspected. Jim thinks the markets are overly complacent about it.
Yellen’s recent speeches indicate the Fed will not raise rates. The Fed uses a relatively simple model that targets 2% inflation. The Fed wants interest rates to be around 3.5% before the next recession because you can’t get out of a recession with rates this low. He discusses various pause factors that use in their forecast.
Gold stocks are much the same what differs is management. How do you sort the well-run companies from the frauds? Jim says do your homework or find a reliable source.
Jim provides an overview of meraglim.com a company he is working with that utilize four scientific principals and a supercomputer to analyze the market and make predictions about possible outcomes of future events.