Marin Katusa: Uranium Series Part 4: Making a Short Case Against Uranium
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Marin discusses his travels to many regions where he has looked at lots of projects. Most of which he says, “Will never, ever get into production.” When markets get euphoric many of these old projects will be promoted, and while they may have pounds in the ground, they will never be mines. Don’t put any money in European or non-producing areas of Africa in the next cycle. You want to expose yourself to cash-flow and royalties.
He discusses his “short report” on uranium and how he only looked at the United State’s demand picture for uranium. He analyzed reactor shutdowns and how many would likely be built. He only counted those reactors that are financed, permitted and thus under construction. Typically only 10% of planned reactors ever get made. He is quite bullish on uranium as the United States is the largest consumer of uranium in the world and yet they produce less than 10% of what they consume. America is very vulnerable.
He cautions that since uranium is so unloved, it’s ten times as difficult to start a uranium mine. Governments and people are afraid of uranium due to misinformation.
Marin likes the royalty and streaming companies and feels every investor should have exposure to them. They take on the least amount of risk and tend to outperform everything else. You want to minimize your downside risks by investing with the best long-term management teams who have weathered the bad times and that have projects in the best jurisdictions. Whenever you invest in a fund or company be sure that they are more invested in it than you.
He feels that by the end of 2019 the price should reach $35 to $40 and in 2020 it should be above $40. The move in uranium will likely not happen all at once.