Justin Smyth: Lessons Learned From The Last Major Uranium Bull Market
Justin discusses stage analysis which is a trend system that uses the 30 week moving average to determine bull markets. The uranium sector broke above this at the end of 2016 and the increased ETF URA volume was the signal for him that the sector was turning bullish.
He says bull markets are often composed of two huge moves as the bear market flushes many investors out of the system. Usually you are coming off of a deep bottom, eventually there are no more sellers, and then the market starts moving back up. Smart money players, value and momentum investors, and investment banks all begin to get interested. Later on the media and the public come aboard and you get a second rally.
He thinks the recent pullback in uranium may be a good secondary entry point. It’s relatively low risk if you put stops below the breakout level. His system gives you a nice reference point with which to exit if things turn down.
He does also look at the fundamentals of companies, particularly at their finances and debt. He wants to see stocks across the sector showing similar positive patterns. Trend following systems have the most trouble when there is an extended sideways chopping pattern which can result in small losses.
Trend followers usually monitor multiple sectors and stay focused on those that are in bull markets. He discusses ways to manage risk and maintain cash for other opportunities, big money is made from following the longer term trends.